Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are down 1 to 2 cents at midday. This morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production in the week of 11/2 at 1.068 million barrels per day, up 9,000 bpd from the previous week. Stocks of ethanol were up 404,000 barrels at 23.150 million barrels, with the Midwest and West Coast seeing a jump in stocks. Prior to Thursday’s monthly USDA reports, analysts are expecting US corn ending stocks to drop 38 mbu to 1.775 bbu. The Export Sales report tomorrow is seen as showing 600,000-900,000 MT in 18/19 corn sales for the week of 11/1. China’s CNGOIC revised last years corn crop to 259 MMT, up 20% from previously thought! They also put the 18/19 crop at 259 MMT, well above the Ag ministry’s 213 MMT. This may cause changes to USDA world S & D table in upcoming reports and would take away the tightest since 2000 world stocks/use argument if adopted.

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.72, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.84, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 19 Corn is at $3.91 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.97 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 6 cents in the red on Wednesday. Front month soy meal are down $3.50/ton, with soy oil 19 points higher. Thursday’s Export sales report is expected to show 400,000-700,000 MT in 18/19 soybean export sales for the week of 11/1. Soy meal sales are seen at 200,000-450,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. The average trade estimate heading into Thursday’s monthly USDA reports calls for US soybean ending stocks to be up 21 mbu to 906 mbu. Production is expected to be lower, but the surveyed traders estimate USDA will trim exports.

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.66 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.78 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $8.91, down 5 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.04 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal is at $307.90, down $3.50

Dec 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.09, up $0.19

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are trading steady to 2 cents lower in the CBT contracts at midday, with KC and MPLS down 4 to 6 cents. All wheat export sales during the week of November1 are projected at 300,000-600,000 MT ahead of Thursday’s weekly report. Last week’s sales total was on the higher side of those estimates at 582,545 MT. USDA is expected to trim world wheat ending stocks by 0.73 MMT to 259.46 MMT on Thursday. That is thanks in part to a smaller projected Australian crop and tighter stocks in other major producers. Russia’s Ag Ministry updated their country’s wheat export projection to 34-35 MMT on Wednesday, up 1 MMT from their prior estimate.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.12, unch ,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.04, down 4 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.82 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are showing 32.5 to 95 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are down 70 cents to $1.15 at the moment, with down 2.5 cents ahead of next week’s expiration. The CME feeder cattle index was down 23 cents on November 5 at $153.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were down 20 cents @ $218.56, with Select $1.27 lower at $203.39. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head on Tuesday, with the WTD total at 238,000 head. That is 4,000 above the previous week and the same date last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw no sales on the 310 head offered.

Dec 18 Cattle are at $115.100, down $0.325,

Feb 19 Cattle are at $119.450, down $0.950,

Apr 19 Cattle are at $121.100, down $0.825,

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.950, down $0.025

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.650, down $0.950

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.250, down $1.150

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are up a dime to $1.225 on Wednesday’s midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 8 cents from the previous day @ $64.00 on November 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 25 cents @ $73.83 in the Wednesday morning report. The national base hog carcass value was not reported due to confidentiality reasons with the 5-day rolling average at $57.05. FI hog slaughter was estimated 477,000 head by the USDA on Tuesday, bringing the weekly total to 953,000 head. That is up 22,000 from the previous week and 34,000 higher than the same week in 2017.

Dec 18 Hogs are at $55.325, up $1.225,

Feb 19 Hogs are at $61.500, up $0.100

Apr 19 Hogs are at $67.525, up $0.225

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are posting 177 to 210 point gains in most nearby contracts on Wednesday. The US dollar index is down 335 points at midday, following Tuesday’s election. The Fed meets this week, but most don’t expect another rate hike until next month. Traders are anticipating a reduction to US cotton production in Thursday’s USDA report because of the hurricane damage. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from the previous day at 88.35 cents/lb on November 6. The USDA weekly AWP is 68.56 cents/lb through Thursday, and will be updated that afternoon.

Dec 18 Cotton is at 79.53, up 210 points,

Mar 19 Cotton is at 81.17, up 190 points

May 19 Cotton is at 82.53, up 189 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 83.560, up 177 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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