Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 1 to 1 1/4 cents higher in the nearby contracts at midday. The Wednesday morning EIA report indicated that ethanol plants produced 1.1 million barrels per day of ethanol in the week of August 3. That was a jump of 36,000 bpd and the largest total since the week of December 1, 2017. Stocks of ethanol were up 956,000 barrels to 22.923 million barrels, with increases to the Gulf and Midwest. Analysts are estimating that old crop corn export sales in the week of August 2 totaled 300,000-600,000 MT, with new crop in a range of 400,000-900,000 MT. A Taiwan importer is tendering for 65,000 MT of optional origin corn, with the tender closing on Thursday. The average trade estimate for the 17/18 Brazil corn production is 82.5 MMT, down 1 from the July estimate, in Friday’s WASDE report.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.72, up 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.85 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.96 1/2, up 1 cent

May 19 Corn is at $4.03, up 1 cent



Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 6 cents in the green on Wednesday. Nearby soy meal is up $3.50/ton, with soy oil down 5 points. The Chinese Dalian Exchange saw domestic soybean futures prices up 3.95% on Wednesday over fears of an eventual shortage of the soybean supply in the country. Trade estimates are ranging 100,000-400,000 MT for old crop soybean sales in the week of 8/2 and 300,000-600,000 MT for new crop ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report. Soy meal is seen at 40,000-250,000 MT, with soy oil expected to range 8,000-34,000 MT. Traders in a Bloomberg survey are estimating that the Brazil production number will be 119.3 MMT (-0.2) on Friday, with Argentina at 36.7 MMMT (-0.3). Chinese soybean imports from all sources dipped to 8.01 MMT in July from 8.70 MMT in June and 10 MMT in July 2017.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.95, up 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $9.00 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $9.11 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.22 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $336.20, up $3.50

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.54, down $0.05



Wheat futures are showing mixed trade on Wednesday, with most contracts within a penny on either side of UNCH. The CBT is the weakest, down 2-3 cents, KC steady and MPLS up 1-2 cents. Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to show all wheat sales during the week of August 2 in a range of 200,000-500,000 MT. Last week’s sales totaled 382,452 MT. US Wheat ending stocks are expected to be down 18 mbu in Friday’s USDA report to 967.4 mbu. That is mainly expected from the reduction seen to production. A German Farm Cooperative group sees the 2018 German wheat harvest at 19.2 MMT, down from last years 24 MMT, citing hot and dry conditions.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.66, down 2 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.80, up 1/2 cent,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.30 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents



Live cattle futures are currently 40 to 50 cents lower at midday. Feeder cattle futures are mostly 10 cents to $1 lower in the back months and slightly higher in August. The CME feeder cattle index was up 32 cents from the previous day on 8/6, reaching $150.06. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were up 32 cents at $205.81, while Select boxes were 59 cents higher at $199.10. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 237,000 head through Tuesday. That is up 5,000 head from the previous week and 2,000 head above the same week in 2017. Wednesday morning’s FCE online auction showed no sales on 464 head offered, with 2 lots passing on offers of $112.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $109.625, down $0.450,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $110.475, down $0.450,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $113.925, down $0.450,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.925, up $0.075

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.625, down $0.100

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.200, down $0.300



Lean hog futures are down 25 cents to $1.50 in most contracts on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.40 on August 6, to $66.64. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 25 cents from the previous day at $71.80 on Wednesday morning. The belly was up $3.25, with the picnic the only other primal reported higher. The national base hog carcass was down $1.76 on Wednesday morning, with the weighted average totaling $48.10. USDA estimated Week to Date FI hog slaughter at 848,000 head through Tuesday. That is down 36,000 head from last week due to plant downtime but 17,000 head above the same week last year.

Aug 18 Hogs are at $54.950, down $0.850,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $48.500, down $1.475

Dec 18 Hogs are at $44.400, down $1.225



Cotton futures are trading 50 to 73 cents lower @ midday in sympathy with crude oil. That is showing sharp $2.70 per barrel losses at midday. The weekly Export Sales report will be released at the normal 7:30 a.m. CDT time on Thursday. This report will finish out sales and shipments for the 2017/18 MY. Traders, in general, are expecting NASS to show a reduction to the US cotton production figure on Friday. The Cotlook A index was up 25 points from the previous day at 98.25 cents/lb on August 6. The weekly USDA AWP is currently at 80.06 cents/lb and will be updated on Thursday.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 87.49, down 73 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 87.3, down 60 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 87.51, down 57 points

May 19 Cotton is at 87.820, down 50 points






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