Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 1 to 2 1/4 cents lower. The weekly EIA report showed 1.034 million barrels per day of ethanol was produced during the week of 4/6. That was down 4,000 bpd from the previous week. On a bullish note, ethanol stocks dropped 579,000 barrels to the lowest level since early November at 21.846 million barrels. In Tuesday’s monthly supply and demand report, the USDA trimmed the average farm price range by 10 cents to $3.20-3.50, with the midpoint remaining at $3.35. Analysts are expecting the USDA to show 0.9-1.4 MMT of old crop export sales during the week of 4/5 in Thursday’s Export Sales report, with new crop at 0-300,000 MT.

May 18 Corn closed at $3.87, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, down 2 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.02 3/4, down 2 cents

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.12, down 2 cents

Soybean futures closed the day with 1 1/2 to 3 3/4 cent losses after spending most of the day in positive territory. Soy meal was down $3.70/ton, with front month soy oil down 32 points. The USDA reported private export sales under the daily reporting system this morning. Those included another 120,000 MT to Argentina and 141,518 MT to Mexico for 18/19 delivery. There were reports of local prices in Argentina dropping due to this import threat. On Tuesday, the USDA cut the average farm price estimate for soybeans by 20 cents to $9.10-$9.50, as they left the midpoint at $9.30. The average trade guess for old crop soybean export sales ahead of Thursday is 0.9-1.4 MMT, with 400,000-600,000 MT seen for new crop. Soy meal sales are expected at 150,000-450,000 MT, as traders estimate 20,000-45,000 MT for soy oil.

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.47 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.58 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.59, down 2 1/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $10.46 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybean Meal closed at $380.20, down $3.70,

May 18 Soybean Oil closed at $31.53, down $0.32

Wheat futures were mostly 4 to 5 cents lower in the CBT and KC contracts. MPLS was up 2 1/2 cents in the front months. The 6-10 day forecast is calling for colder than normal temps in the North, possibly delaying spring wheat planting. Warmer than normal temps are expected in the western parts of OK and TX. Wheat export sales for the week that ended 4/5 are expected to be 150,000-350,000 MT, with 100,000-300,000 MT seen for new crop. With the addition to the projected world ending stocks number yesterday, the USDA now sees a 6.53% jump in world carryover from 16/17. At the same time ending stocks in the US are estimated to be down 9.91%.

May 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.87 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

May 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.16 3/4, down 5 cents,

May 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.29, up 2 1/2 cents

Live cattle futures settled with mixed trade on Wednesday, as nearby April was up 70 cents. Feeder cattle futures were 7.5 to 45 cents higher in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was up 4 cents on April 10 at $134.85. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were 44 cents lower at $213.07, with Select boxes down 72 cents at $200.61. The Ch/Se spread has now widened to $12.46. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was at 356,000 head through Wednesday. That is 17,000 above the previous week and up 15,000 head from the same week in 2017. The FCE online auction saw just 509 head sold of the 3,931 offered. The average price for 1-9 day delivery was $117.71, with 17-30 day delivery at $114.There were reports of $117 cash trade in TX, with $118 bids in KS this afternoon.

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $113.500, up $0.700,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $101.575, down $0.525,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $102.375, up $0.075,

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.275, up $0.450

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.550, up $0.275

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.700, up $0.075

Lean hog futures finished with nearby April down 20 cents and back months higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 52 cents from the previous day on April 9 to $53.50. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 71 cents at $65.86 on Wednesday afternoon. The belly was the only cut reported higher. The national base hog weighted average price was 95 cents higher at $47.50. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.367 million head through Wednesday. That is up 32,000 head from the same point last year.

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $53.300, down $0.200,

May 18 Hogs closed at $67.925, up $0.475

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $75.775, up $0.725

Cotton futures were mostly 18 to 30 points higher today, with thinly traded October down 45 points. If the increase in projected US cotton exports to 15 million bales is realized, 17/18 exports would be the largest since 05/06. The Cotlook A index was up 35 points on April 10 to 92.40 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP), currently 72.03 cents/lb through Thursday, will be updated tomorrow. There were sales of 7,433 bales at an average price of 74.44 cents/lb sold on the Seam on Tuesday. A Chinese auction of state reserves saw 13,600 MT of cotton sold, which was 45.27% of the total offered.

May 18 Cotton closed at 83.830, up 30 points,

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 83.410, up 24 points

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 79.640, down 45 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.