Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 5 to 7 1/4 cents lower in most contracts on Wednesday. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production in the week that ended 7/6 at 1.033 million barrels per day. That was down 34,000 bpd from the week prior and the lowest weekly production in 7 weeks. Stocks of ethanol rose 418,000 barrels during that week to 22.393 million barrels, the largest inventory since the last week in March. The average trade guess for old crop US corn stocks in Thursday’s USDA S&D report is for a 13 mbu jump to 2.115 bbu. New crop US stocks are also seen higher, mainly from the increase to acreage in June 29’s Acreage report. Analysts are expecting a 263 mbu jump to US production to 14.303 bbu, with acreage seen as the main mover as the USDA rarely adjusted yield in July.

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.32 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.41 3/4, down 6 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.55 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.66 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents

Soybean futures are down 15 to 16 cents in the front months at midday, weighed by the continued trade dispute with China. Nearby soy meal is down 80 cents/ton, with soy oil 44 points lower. Late on Tuesday, the Trump Administration announced they will begin the process of implementing 10% tariffs on another $200 billion in imported Chinese goods. Old crop US soybean stocks are expected on average to see little change in Thursday’s USDA report, with the trade guess at 507 mbu. New crop is seen at 471 mbu, nearly 86 mbu above June on more acreage. The USDA is expected to factor in adjustments from the US-China trade dispute in that report. US production is seen at 4.324 bbu, nearly 44 mbu larger than June’s report, mainly on higher acreage. China sold 171,778 MT of 2013 soybeans from an auction of state reserves on Wednesday, totaling 34.73% of the amount offered.

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $8.37 1/4, down 15 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.40 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.45 1/4, down 15 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.55 1/2, down 16 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal is at $333.60, down $0.80

Jul 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.44, down $0.44

Wheat futures are currently 14 to 18 cents lower in most front month winter wheat contracts, excluding July which expires on Friday. MPLS is down 9 to 11 cents. Pressure is coming from spillover of corn and soybean selling, and a lack of fresh bullish news ahead of Thursday’s WASDE and Crop Production reports. Old crop ending stocks should be equal to June 1 stocks of 1.1 billion bushels, with analysts expecting 18/19 US stocks at 985 mbu, up 39 mbu from last month. Old crop world ending stocks are estimated at 272.2 MMT, down slightly from the previous report. New crop is seen at 265.05 MMT, which would be down 1.11 MMT from June.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.77 1/2, down 14 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.76 3/4, down 18 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.26 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures are trading $1.95 to $2.25 lower in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are down $3.40 to $3.75. The CME feeder cattle index was up 27 cents from the previous day at $146.75 on 7/9. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were up 66 cents to $207.66, while Select boxes were $1.08 lower at $197.31. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter through Tuesday at 239,000 head, 3,000 head more than last week and up 2,000 the same week last year. No sales were reported on this morning’s FCE that saw 365 head offered. Bids of $108 are being reported so far this morning.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $103.200, down $2.250,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $105.875, down $1.950,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $110.200, down $2.075,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.450, down $3.400

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.300, down $3.750

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.750, down $3.400

Lean hog futures are showing mixed trade on Wednesday, with nearby July up 20 cents and back months slightly lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 25 cents on July 7, to $81.67. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 9 cents on Wednesday morning at $84.01. The butt primal was down $4.23, with the picnic $4.41 lower and all other primal cuts reported higher. The national base carcass price was down 69 cents from the previous day, reported at $75.49. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 901,000 head through Tuesday, down 25,000 head from last week but 24,000 head above last year.

Jul 18 Hogs are at $79.700, up $0.200,

Aug 18 Hogs are at $69.600, down $0.175

Oct 18 Hogs are at $53.400, down $0.375

Cotton futures are mostly 136 to 161 points in the red at midday. Pressure is evident from the continued trade dispute, as President Trump released list of another $200 billion Chinese goods to target for a 10% tariff. Hearings on the list are expected to be in the Aug 20-23 time frame. This comes less than a week after both countries implemented tariffs on $34 billion of each other’s goods, including US cotton. The weekly Export Sales report is back on the schedule for Thursday morning. The Cotlook A index was up 250 points from the previous day on July 9 to 94.60 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 74.59 cents/lb through Thursday.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 86.14, down 136 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 84.79, down 159 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 84.51, down 151 points

May 19 Cotton is at 84.240, down 161 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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