Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are steady to fractionally higher at midday. This morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production for the week of Jan 5 at just 996,000 barrels per day. That was a drop of 36,000 bpd from the previous week, as weekly production fell 94,000 bpd in the past two reports. Spot ethanol futures are steeply discounted vs. gasoline due to excess inventory. Stocks of ethanol at the end of that week rose 100,000 barrels to 22.719 million barrels. Traders are estimating the USDA will show 350,000-650,00 MT in old crop export sales for the week of Jan 4. That would be an increase over last week’s MY low of 101,198 MT. Ahead of Friday’s quarterly grain stocks report, analysts are expecting US corn stocks on December 1 to tally 12.429 billion bushels, slightly larger than a year ago.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.49 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

May 18 Corn is at $3.57 1/4, unch ,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.65 1/2, unch ,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.73 1/4, down 1/4 cent

Soybean futures continue to show weakness ahead of Friday’s massive report day, with most contracts 8 to 9 3/4 cents in the red. Meal futures are down $1.60/ton, with nearby soy oil 7 points higher. The USDA reported a private export sale of 260,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations this morning. That sale was split with 65,000 MT for 17/18 delivery and 195,000 MT for 18/19 delivery. Expectations ahead of the Thursday USDA Export Sales report show 17/18 soybean sales in a range of 500,000-850,000 MT for the New Year week of Jan 4. The average trade guess for December 1 soybean stocks is running 3.181 billion bushels, which is 9.77% above last December. The range of analysts’ estimates is fairly wide at 2.963 bbu to 3.306 bbu.

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.46, down 9 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.55 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $9.66 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $9.75 3/4, down 8 cents,

Jan 18 Soybean Meal is at $312.90, down $1.60

Jan 18 Soybean Oil is at $33.62, up $0.07

Wheat futures are steady to 2 cents higher in most CBT contracts, while most KC and MPLS contracts are steady to 2 cents lower. Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to show old crop wheat sales pick up for the week of Jan 4 to a range of 250,000-450,000 MT. Last week’s MY low sales totaled just 130,963 MT. December 1 wheat stocks are expected to be shown at 1.849 billion bushels this Friday, nearly 10.98% lower than the same time last year. A sale of 73,625 MT of US wheat to Taiwan was reported on Wednesday.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.33, up 3/4 cent,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.38 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.29 3/4, down 1 cent

Live cattle futures are down 40 to 82.5 cents in most nearby contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are mixed with nearby Jan 70 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index on January 8 was $152.42, down $1.50 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher again on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes averaged 36 cents higher at $210.85, with Select boxes up 57 cents per cwt at $204.26. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 236,000 head through Tuesday. That is 6,000 head more than the same week last year. Cash trade was early this week with sales of $120 across most regions. This morning’s FCE showed sales of $119 on 401 of the 711 head offered.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $116.850, down $0.825,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $118.725, down $0.800,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $111.275, down $0.400,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $144.775, down $0.700

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $142.850, up $0.100

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $142.700, up $0.025

Lean hog futures are $1.00 to $1.55 lower in most nearby contracts at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 72 cents on January 8 at $66.37. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 50 cents at $79.03 in the Wednesday. The picnic value was down a sharp $4.57, with the loin and belly also lower. The national base hog weighted average price was up $1.52 to $69.08. The USDA week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 930,000 head through Tuesday. That is up 85,000 head from the same week last year.

Feb 18 Hogs are at $71.725, down $1.450,

Apr 18 Hogs are at $75.275, down $1.500

May 18 Hogs are at $79.950, down $1.000

Cotton futures are showing strong trade on Wednesday, with most front months posting triple digit gains. The US dollar is weaker this morning, with crude oil also 33 points higher and putting upward pressure on synthetic fiber prices. Ahead of the monthly USDA supply and demand report analysts are expecting to see a slight reduction in the world ending stocks number, via lower production. The USDA Cotton Ginnings report will also be released on Friday. The Cotlook A Index for January 9 was 10 points higher than the previous day at 88.80 cents/lb. Online cash sales of 23,823 bales were reported on the Seam on Tuesday, with an average price of 70.5 cents/lb, up 83 points from the day prior.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 79.75, up 140 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 79.95, up 126 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 80.1, up 107 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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