Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures saw 1 to 2 3/4 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday. The 6-10 day outlook shows below normal chances for precip in most of IA and the ECB. This week’s EIA report indicated that 1.036 million barrels of ethanol was produced in the week of 5/3. That was a jump of 12,000 bpd from the week prior and 4,000 bpd shy of the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were down 227,000 barrels at 22.468 million barrels, which is the lowest since last July. Analysts expect old crop export sales to total 500,000-800,000 MT in Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report, with 50,000-200,000 MT in new crop sales. Ahead of Friday’s USDA report, analysts expect Brazilian corn production to be increased by 0.7 to 96.7 MMT, with Argentina up 1 from last month at 48 MMT.

May 19 Corn closed at $3.55 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.72 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.82 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures closed the Wednesday session with most nearby contracts 2 to 3 1/2 cents lower. Meal futures were up 30 cents/ton, with May soy oil 10 points lower. A report from Reuters states that China had backtracked on many of their commitments in a draft trade agreement sent to the US on Friday. That drove President Trump’s decision to increase the 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25%, which goes into effect this upcoming Friday. The trade range of estimates for 18/19 US soybean export sales in the week of May 2 is 300,000-650,000, with new crop at 50,000-450,000 MT. The average trade guess for Friday’s WASDE shows Brazil soybean production UNCH at 117 MMT, with Argentina up slightly to 55.7 MMT. Chinese soybean imports in April tallied 7.64 MMT, according to Customs data, up 55.3% from March and 10.7% larger than last year. A USDA attach report shows 18/19 Chinese soybean imports at 84 MMT, 4 MMT below USDA’s current official estimate, with 19/20 at 83 MMT.

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.14 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.27 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.33 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $8.50 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $288.70, up $0.30,

May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $26.71, down $0.10

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures settled Wednesday with fractional to 3 cent losses in most contract, with exception to higher May CBT and a few deferred contracts. Traders are expecting USDA to show 75,000-250,000 MT in old crop export sales for the week ending May 2, with 100,000-350,000 MT seen for new crop. With the marketing year ending May 31, most of the business will be expected to be in the new crop slot. Ahead of USDA’s WASDE report on Friday, analysts expect old crop World wheat ending stocks to be slightly higher at 275.89 MMT. The initial roll out of 19/20 ending stocks is expected to be around 277.42 MMT, with a wide range of guesses from 259-290 MMT.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.39, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.03 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.20 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures posted $1.125 to $1.80 losses in most contracts on Wednesday. Open interest is declining as the big spec funds attempt to unwind that record large net long. Feeder cattle futures were down $1.35 to $1.725. The CME feeder cattle index was down a dime to $136.57 on May 7. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon, with the Ch/Se spread widening to $15.52. Choice boxes were down 86 cents at $223.01 with Select boxes $4.34 lower @ $207.49. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 362,000 head through Wednesday. That was up 1,000 head from the previous week and 3,000 above the same week last year. The Wednesday morning’s FCE auction showed sales of $120 on 670 of the 863 head offered. Cash trade so far this week has been around $120 in the south and $120-121 in the north.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $111.075, down $1.200,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $107.400, down $1.675,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $107.650, down $1.800,

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.775, down $1.525

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.875, down $1.725

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.850, down $1.625

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were mostly 70 cents to $1.625 in the red on Wednesday, with nearby May up 52.5 cents. The Index fund roll period is underway, bleeding open interest out of the June contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 19 cents from the previous day @ $82.63 on May 6. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 73 cents at $84.94 on Wednesday afternoon. The national average base hog was $79.04 on Wednesday, down 23 cents from the previous day. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 1.415 million head through Wednesday. That was 5,000 head below the previous week but 42,000 above the same week last year.

May 19 Hogs closed at $83.575, up $0.525,

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $88.550, down $0.700

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $90.750, down $1.375

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures saw 4 to 87 cents losses in the front months on Wednesday, with thinly traded Oct up 4 points Pressure is coming from the Trade War front, as it was reported that China backtracked on several of the main points in a draft of their trade agreement last Friday. Tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, threatened by President Trump last weekend, will increase to 25% on Friday. There is limited technical support between here and the double bottom. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 68.27 cents/lb, effective through Thursday. The Cotlook A index was down 180 points from the previous day on May 7 at 83.15 cents/lb.

May 19 Cotton closed at 71.450, down 83 points,

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 72.310, down 87 points

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 72.520, up 15 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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