Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are lower at midday, seeing losses in the nearby contracts of 3/4 to 3 cents. The EIA weekly report showed that ethanol production did remain above 1 million bpd, at 1,014 mil bpd for the week ending 11/1. Stocks were reported at 21.874 million barrels, with the Midwest region holding the dominant share per usual. Traders are estimating Thursday’s weekly export sales to range from 300,000 MT to 650,000 MT of corn sales for the week ending 10/31. South Korean firms purchased 201,000 MT of corn for February delivery, optional origin. A Reuters survey showed estimates for the USDA report average 167.5 bpa for 2019 US corn yield. Traders are also expecting a modest reduction in harvested acres. The average estimation for global ending stocks was 300.31 MMT of corn.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.81, down 3/4 cent,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.89 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.95 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.01 3/4, down 3 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are down by as much as 5 1/2 cents at Wednesday’s midday. Soybean meal is $2.00/ton lower so far, but oil is up by 7 points. Trade estimates for soybean export sales for the week ending on 10/31 range from 600,000 – 1.2 MMT. Soybean meal is expected to see export sales between 150,000 - 300,000 MT for the same week. Traders are anticipating tomorrow’s USDA weekly report to indicate soybean oil export sales to range from 5,000-25,000 MT. A Reuters survey ahead of Friday’s USDA report indicated traders are expecting world ending stocks of soybeans to be 93.85 MMT.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.16 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.29 1/4, down 5 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.42 1/4, down 5 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.54 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $300.70, down $2.00,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $31.64, up $0.07

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Chicago Wheat is up by 1 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents on Wednesday. Kansas City wheat is holding steady so far Wednesday, as futures are fractionally mixed at midday. Minneapolis wheat futures are lower at midday, losing 3/4 to 2 1/2 cents so far. The EU has raised their 2019/20 wheat crop production estimate to 147.0 MMT, up from their previous 145 MMT estimate. The EU also adjusted their wheat export expectations to 26 MMT. Russian winter wheat planting is well under way and the country released their initial 2020/21 MY production estimates, at 79.733 MMT. Analysts expect to see a world ending stocks of 287.03 MMT from the USDA on Friday.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.18 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.30, up 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.24 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are lower, with Dec approaching the $1 mark. Feeder cattle futures, on the other hand, are off by triple digits, down by as much as $1.87 at midday. Beef exports to China were at an all time high for the month of September, shipping 3 million lbs for the month. The 11/04 CME Feeder Cattle index was down $0.21 to $146.24. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher for Wednesday’s midday. The Chc/Sel spread to $25.39. Choice boxes are another 68 cents higher so far, and select boxes are up by $1.52. Wednesday’s FCE online auction so far has seen no completed trades. NE and KS cattle are listed at $117, while TX has 146 head for $113. Feedlots passed on packer bids. The USDA estimated cattle slaughter is ahead of last week’s pace, with a running weekly total of 234,000 head for Tuesday.

DEC 19 Cattle are at $118.550, down $0.900,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $124.125, down $0.550,

APR 20 Cattle are at $125.075, down $0.750,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.550, down $1.300

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.975, down $1.800

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.325, down $1.875

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are lower by $1.32 to $2.70 so far at midday. Of the 465.0 Million lbs of September pork exports, per Census data, 14.53% went to China. China has received 539.806 million lbs of U.S. pork already this year, which is 37.84% higher than 2018’s entire yearly total, with 3 months to add. We expect China, to double 2018’s pork export for 2019.

China’s state owned COFCO has signed a deal to import $100 million worth of pork from Danish Crown Inc by 2020. The Nov 1 CME Lean Hog Index was triple digits lower, at $60.88. The pork carcass cutout value from USDA is giving back $1.08 for midday. The national average base hog price continues to decrease, falling another 66 cents on Wednesday to $45.29. Week to date estimated USDA Hog slaughter was 1,000 head above last week’s pace, with 982,000 head by Tuesday.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $64.575, down $2.700,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $72.350, down $1.400

APR 20 Hogs are at $78.650, down $1.325

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday cotton futures are dropping, lower by as much as 30 points at midday. Census export data showed yesterday that September cotton exports, were 909,989 (480lb) bales. The accumulated online sales, as per the seam, are up to 6,518 bales as of 11/5. Last week’s total sold was 17,146 bales, at an average pace of 2,449 bales per day. The Cotlook A Index for 11/5 decreased by 35 points, to 74.70 cents/lb. The 10/31 AWP was 57.33 cents/lb, and will remain until Thursday’s update.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.52, down 29 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.17, down 30 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.26, down 23 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 67.3, down 15 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.