Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing fractional losses in most contracts at midday, following disappointing ethanol production data. The weekly EIA report showed production at 967,000 barrels per day in the week of February 1, which was down 45,000 bpd from the previous week. That was the lowest production (and implied corn use) since the week of October 6, 2017. Stocks of ethanol were down in that week, but only by 33,000 barrels to 23.947 million barrels, as the Gulf was the only regions to show a wk/wk reduction. November US corn exports were finally confirmed at 5.105 MMT (200.96 mbu), which was down from October but nearly double that month in 2017.

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.80, down 3/4 cent,

May 19 Corn is at $3.88 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.96, down 1/2 cent

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.98 1/2, down 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading fractionally to 1 3/4 cents higher on Wednesday. Meal futures are down 60 cents/ton, with soy oil 38 points higher to carry the product values. USDA reported another round of private export sales of 523,000 MT (18/19) and 63,000 MT (19/20) of soybeans to China. There was also 182,000 MT reported for 18/19 delivery to unknown. Total daily sales since the announcement of China offering to purchase 5 MMT are at 3.8 MMT to China and another 456,000 MT to “unknown.” Census trade data from November was released on Wednesday morning, with soybean shipments at 5.067 MMT (186.18 mbu). That was down 9.2% from last year and well below a year ago.

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.20 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.34 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.48 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.53 1/2, up 1 cent,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.90, down $0.60

Mar 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.76, up $0.38

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are fractionally to 1 3/4 cents lower in the front months at midday, with deferred contracts steady to 4 cents higher. Updated trade estimates from a Reuters survey show estimated winter wheat acreage at 32.128 million acres, 407,000 acres below last year. Most of that is expected from HRW, down 354,000 acres at 22.579 million acres. US wheat exports in November were tallied at 1.72 MMT (63.19 mbu) according to Census data. That was down 9.69% from October but up 16.7% from the year prior. Russia exported a total of 43.67 MMT of wheat in the 2018 calendar year, which was 33.12% larger than in 2017. French wheat exports outside of the EU are projected at 8.85 MMT in 18/19 by FranceAgriMer, up slightly from the prior number of 8.7 MMT.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.26 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat is at $5.09 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.73 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are down 10 to 60 cents on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are 22.5 to 50 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up 53 cents on February 4 at $141.54. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday morning, with the Ch/Select spread at $4.64. Choice boxes were up 62 cents at $217.64 with Select 10 cents lower at $213.00. This week’s USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter is 236,000 head through Tuesday. That is down 1,000 head from last week and 7,000 above the same week last year. A total of 161 of the 294 head offered on this morning’s FCE auction were sold, with one lot going for $124 and the other @ $124.25.

Feb 19 Cattle are at $126.225, down $0.475,

Apr 19 Cattle are at $127.025, down $0.600,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $117.175, down $0.225,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.325, down $0.500

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.975, down $0.475

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.650, down $0.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are showing 15 to 50 cent losses at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 5 cents from the previous day @ $57.36 on February 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.63 on Wednesday morning at an average weighted price of $64.59. The national base cash hog carcass value was not reported due to confidentiality restrictions in the AM report, with a 5-day rolling average of $50.53. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 950,000 head through Tuesday. That is 14,000 above the previous week and 27,000 head larger than the same week last year.

Feb 19 Hogs are at $56.275, down $0.150,

Apr 19 Hogs are at $61.100, down $0.500

May 19 Hogs are at $68.450, down $0.275

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are up 41 to 53 points in most contracts at midday. US Census trade data shows cotton exports at 681,328 bales during November, 6.2% below the previous year but 11.96% larger than October. Of the total 107,296 bales went to China. The Cotlook A Index was down another 75 points on February 5 to 82.25 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 65.07 cents/lb through Thursday, up 17 points from the previous week. CFTC released year end data on Tuesday, confirming that the speculative net long in cotton had dwindled to only 5,556 contracts as of December 31.

Mar 19 Cotton is at 73.93, up 53 points,

May 19 Cotton is at 75.13, up 44 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 76.51, up 47 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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