Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed Wednesday steady to a penny lower, following disappointing ethanol production data. The weekly EIA report showed production at 967,000 barrels per day in the week of February 1, which was down 45,000 bpd from the previous week. That was the lowest production (and implied corn use) since the week of October 6, 2017. Stocks of ethanol were down that week, but only by 33,000 barrels to 23.947 million barrels, as the Gulf was the only regions to show a wk/wk reduction. November US corn exports were finally confirmed at 5.105 MMT (200.96 mbu), which was down from October but nearly double that month in 2017.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.80, down 3/4 cent,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.88, down 1 cent,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, down 3/4 cent

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, down 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 1 to 2 1/2 cents in positive territory. Meal futures were down 50 cents/ton, with soy oil 52 points higher to carry the product values. USDA reported another round of private export sales of 523,000 MT (18/19) and 63,000 MT (2019/20) of soybeans to China. There was also 182,000 MT reported for 18/19 delivery to unknown. Total daily sales since the announcement of China offering to purchase 5 MMT are at 3.8 MMT to China and another 456,000 MT to “unknown.” Census trade data from November was released on Wednesday morning, with soybean shipments at 5.067 MMT (186.18 mbu). That was down 9.2% from last year and well below a year ago.

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.21 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.35 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.49 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.56 1/2, up 2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal closed at $309.00, down $0.50,

Mar 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.90, up $0.52

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures saw some of the Tuesday spreading unwind in the winter wheat contracts, with front months steady to 2 cents lower and deferred contracts steady to 4 cents higher. MPLS was down 1 to 4 1/4 cents. Updated trade estimates from a Reuters survey show estimated winter wheat acreage at 32.128 million acres, 407,000 acres below last year. Most of that loss is expected from HRW, down 354,000 acres at 22.579 million acres. US wheat exports in November were tallied at 1.72 MMT (63.19 mbu) according to Census data. That was down 9.69% from October but up 16.7% from the year prior. Russia exported a total of 43.67 MMT of wheat in the 2018 calendar year, which was 33.12% larger than in 2017. French wheat exports outside of the EU are projected at 8.85 MMT in 18/19 by FranceAgriMer, up slightly from the prior number of 8.7 MMT.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.26, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.09 1/4, down 2 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.73 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures settled Wednesday with most contracts steady to 47.5 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were down 40 to 65 cents in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was down a penny on February 5 at $141.53. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday afternoon, with the Ch/Select spread widening out to $5.20. Choice boxes were up 55 cents at $217.57 with Select 73 cents lower at $212.37. This week’s USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter is 353,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 4,000 head from last week and 7,000 above the same week last year. Carcass weights have been running light due to poor pen conditions. A total of 161 of the 294 head offered on this morning’s FCE auction were sold, with one lot going for $124 and the other @ $124.25.

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $126.400, down $0.300,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $127.150, down $0.475,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $117.225, down $0.175,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.175, down $0.650

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.850, down $0.600

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.525, down $0.525

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were mostly steady to 70 cents in the red on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 5 cents from the previous day @ $57.36 on February 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 61 cents on Wednesday afternoon at an average weighted price of $65.61. The belly was the only primal reported higher, up $4.83. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 43 cents in the PM report, with a weighted average of $49.77. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.429 million head through Wednesday. That is well above the previous week and 40,000 head larger than the same week last year.

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $55.925, down $0.500,

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $60.900, down $0.700

May 19 Hogs closed at $68.375, down $0.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures saw most contracts close the Wednesday session 16 to 26 points higher. US Census trade data shows cotton exports at 681,328 bales during November, 6.2% below the previous year but 11.96% larger than October. Of the total 107,296 bales went to China. US Trade Rep Lighthizer and Trade Sec Mnuchin are expected to head to China next week for another round of trade talks. The Cotlook A Index was down another 75 points on February 5 to 82.25 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 65.07 cents/lb through Thursday, up 17 points from the previous week.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 73.660, up 26 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 74.860, up 17 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 76.220, up 18 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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