Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading fractionally lower this morning. They closed Wednesday steady to a penny lower, following disappointing ethanol production data. Spreads continue to allocate supply over time. The weekly EIA report showed production at 967,000 barrels per day in the week of February 1, which was down 45,000 bpd from the previous week. That was the lowest production (and implied corn use) since the week of October 6, 2017. Stocks of ethanol were down that week, but only by 33,000 barrels to 23.947 million barrels, as the Gulf was the only regions to show a wk/wk reduction. November US corn exports were finally confirmed at 5.105 MMT (200.96 mbu), which was down from October but nearly double that month in 2017.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are currently 1 to 2 cents lower after ending the Wednesday session with most contracts 1 to 2 1/2 cents in positive territory. Meal futures were down 50 cents/ton, with soy oil 52 points higher to carry the product values. Soy oil is getting a bump on ideas China will need to import the BO if they don’t import beans because they don’t need the meal. Total daily sales since the announcement of China offering to purchase 5 MMT are at 3.8 MMT to China and another 456,000 MT to “unknown.” Census trade data from November was released on Wednesday, with soybean shipments at 5.067 MMT (186.18 mbu). That was down 9.2% from last year and well below a year ago.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower in the winter wheat contracts this morning. Minneapolis spring wheat is steady to 2 cents lower. We saw some spread unwinding in the winter wheat contracts yesterday, with front months steady to 2 cents lower and deferred contracts steady to 4 cents higher. MPLS was down 1 to 4 1/4 cents. Updated trade estimates from a Reuters survey show estimated winter wheat acreage ideas at 32.128 million acres, 407,000 acres below last year. Most of that drop is expected to be HRW, down 354,000 acres at 22.579 million acres. US wheat exports in November were tallied at 1.72 MMT (63.19 mbu) according to Census data. That was down 9.69% from October but up 16.7% from the year prior. Russia exported a total of 43.67 MMT of wheat in the 2018 calendar year, which was 33.12% larger than in 2017.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures settled steady to 47 cents lower on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were down 40 to 65 cents in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was down a penny on February 5 at $141.53. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday afternoon, with the Ch/Select spread widening out to $5.20. Choice boxes were up 55 cents at $217.57 with Select 73 cents lower at $212.37. Week to date USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter is 353,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 4,000 head from last week and 7,000 above the same week last year. Carcass weights have been running light due to poor pen conditions. A total of 161 of the 294 head offered in the FCE auction were sold, with one lot going for $124 and the other @ $124.25.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were mostly steady to 70 cents lower Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 5 cents from the previous day @ $57.36 on February 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 61 cents on Wednesday afternoon at an average weighted price of $65.61. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 43 cents in the PM report, with a weighted average of $49.77. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for the week at 1.429 million head through Wednesday. That is well above the previous week and 40,000 head larger than the same Wednesday last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 3 to 10 points lower this morning. Most contracts were 16 to 26 points higher yesterday. US Census trade data shows cotton exports at 681,328 bales during November, 6.2% below the previous year but 11.96% larger than October. Of the total 107,296 bales went to China. US Trade Rep Lighthizer and Trade Sec Mnuchin are expected to head to China next week for another round of trade talks. The Cotlook A Index was down another 75 points on February 5 to 82.25 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 65.07 cents/lb through Thursday, up 17 points from the previous week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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