Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing losses of 2 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents in most contracts on Thursday. Pressure is from the rest of the grain complex and weakness in ethanol. The nearly a month delayed weekly Export Sales report showed 503,117 MT in old crop corn sales in the Christmas week ending 12/27. That was down from the week prior but still well above the same week last year. Ahead of Friday’s USDA reports, analysts surveyed by Reuters are expecting US 18/19 carryout to be trimmed by 73 mbu to 1.708 bbu. They also estimate that Argentine production will be slightly higher at 43.09 MMT and Brazil will drop 1.09 to 93.41 MMT.

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.76 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn is at $3.84 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.92 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.95 1/2, down 3 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are down 8 to 9 3/4 cents the front months at midday. Meal futures are down $3.30/ton, with soy oil 12 points lower. Reports this morning suggested that President Trump and China’s President Xi are unlikely to meet before the March 1 deadline. The weekly Export Sales report indicated 1.051 MMT of soybeans were sold in the week of December 27. That was down 56% from the preceding non-holiday week as you would expect, but 121.4% larger than the same week last year. China purchased 808,000 MT in that week. Soy meal sales were at 40,597 MT, with soy oil at 15,963 MT. The average trade estimate for 18/19 US soybean ending stocks on Friday’s WASDE release is 926 mbu, which is down 29 mbu from the December report. Analysts estimate Brazil’s soybean crop at 116.99 MMT on average, a drop of 5 MMT from the December WASDE if realized.

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.12, down 9 3/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.26, down 9 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.39 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.45, down 9 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal is at $305.70, down $3.30

Mar 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.78, down $0.12

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are trading 7 to 12 1/2 cents lower on Thursday, with the Chicago contracts the weakest. All wheat export sales in the week that ended on December 27 were reported at 593,002 MT this morning. That was 12.7% above the week prior and more than 4 times larger than the same Christmas week in 2017. The trade is more concerned about the rising US dollar and Russian hints of more active export sales in March. Japan’s weekly MOA tender showed a total of 59,492 MT of US wheat purchased, with the balance of the 131,165 MT total from Canada and Australia. Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show another increase to the US wheat carryout estimate at 989, 15 mbu larger than the Dec update.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.13 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.97 1/2, down 11 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.65 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are mixed in most contracts at midday, with most deferred contracts steady to 20 cents higher. There were 40 delivery notices against Feb on Wednesday night. Feeder cattle futures are up 10 to 60 cents on Thursday The CME feeder cattle index was down a penny on February 5 at $141.53. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday morning, with the Ch/Select spread narrowing to $4.40. Choice boxes were down 45 cents at $217.12 with Select 35 cents higher at $212.72. Week to date USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter is 353,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 4,000 head from last week and 7,000 above the same week last year. Carcass weights have been running light due to poor pen conditions. Cash bids have been light this week with a few starting out at $121 in the South and $196 in the North. We saw limited sales of $124+ on yesterday’s FCE auction.

Feb 19 Cattle are at $126.400, unch,

Apr 19 Cattle are at $127.075, down $0.075,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $117.300, up $0.075,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.275, up $0.100

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.150, up $0.300

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.000, up $0.475

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are mostly 30 cents to $1.05 lower on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 20 cents from the previous day @ $57.16 on February 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 8 cents on Thursday morning at an average weighted price of $65.69. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 3 cents in the AM report, with a weighted average of $49.72. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for the week at 1.429 million head through Wednesday. That is well above the previous week and 40,000 head larger than the same Wednesday last year. Delayed USDA export sales reporting for the week ending 12/27 showed 33,100 MT booked that week, with China buying 14,500 MT net.

Feb 19 Hogs are at $55.625, down $0.300,

Apr 19 Hogs are at $59.850, down $1.050

May 19 Hogs are at $67.900, down $0.475

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are showing 78 to 107 point losses in most contracts at midday. Upland cotton sales in the week that ended on 12/27 totaled 228,202 RB for 18/19 and 32,208 RB for 19/20. The old crop sales were the second largest only behind the week prior as total sales were down 9.31% from a year ago. A total of 28,434 RB in net sales were reported to China in the export sales report for the week ending 12/27 which was released this morning. US Trade Rep Lighthizer and Trade Sec Mnuchin are expected to head to China next week for another round of trade talks. A report out this morning indicates that President Trump and China’s President Xi not likely to meet prior to the March 1 deadline. The Cotlook A Index was up 40 points on February 6 to 82.65 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 64.61 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 46 points from the previous week.

Mar 19 Cotton is at 72.78, down 88 points,

May 19 Cotton is at 73.88, down 98 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 75.23, down 99 points

Oct 19 Cotton is at 73.960, down 78 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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