Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the day with most nearby contracts fractionally higher. The Wednesday morning EIA report indicated that ethanol plants produced 1.1 million barrels per day of ethanol in the week of August 3. That was a jump of 36,000 bpd and the most since the week of December 1. Ethanol stocks jumped 956,000 barrels to 22.923 million barrels, with increases to the Gulf and Midwest. Analysts are estimating that old crop corn export sales in the week of August 2 totaled 300,000-600,000 MT, with new crop in a range of 400,000-900,000 MT. A Taiwan importer is tendering for 65,000 MT of optional origin corn, with the tender closing on Thursday. The average trade estimate for the 17/18 Brazil corn production is 82.5 MMT, down 1 from the July estimate, in Friday’s WASDE report.

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.85, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.96, up 1/2 cent

May 19 Corn closed at $4.02 1/2, up 1/2 cent

Soybean futures saw gains of 4 to 5 cents in most contracts on Wednesday. Nearby soy meal was up $4.50/ton, with soy oil down 14 points. The Chinese Dalian Exchange saw domestic soybean futures prices up 3.95% on Wednesday over fears of an eventual shortage of the soybean supply in the country. Trade estimates are ranging 100,000-400,000 MT for old crop soybean sales in the week of 8/2 and 300,000-600,000 MT for new crop ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report. Soy meal is seen at 40,000-250,000 MT, with soy oil expected to range 8,000-34,000 MT. Traders in a Bloomberg survey are estimating that the Brazil production number will be 119.3 MMT (-0.2) on Friday, with Argentina at 36.7 MMMT (-0.3). Chinese soybean imports from all sources dipped to 8.01 MMT in July from 8.70 MMT in June and 10 MMT in July 2017.

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.93 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.99 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $9.10 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.31 1/4, up 5 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal closed at $337.10, up $4.40,

Aug 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.45, down $0.14

Wheat futures closed the Wednesday session with most contracts 1 3/4 to 6 cents in the green. Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to show all wheat sales during the week of August 2 in a range of 200,000-500,000 MT. Last week’s sales totaled 382,452 MT. US Wheat ending stocks are expected to be down 18 mbu in Friday’s USDA report to 967.4 mbu according to pre-report surveys. That is mainly due to expected production reductions. A German Farm Cooperative group sees the 2018 German wheat harvest at 19.2 MMT, down from last years 24 MMT, citing hot and dry conditions.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.70, up 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.84 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.32 3/4, up 5 cents

Live cattle futures fought back to settle higher in most contracts on Wednesday, with nearby August down a quarter. Feeder cattle futures were steady to $1.025 higher on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was up 50 cents from the previous day on 8/7, reaching $150.56. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 24 cents at $205.73, while Select boxes were 35 cents higher at $198.86. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 357,000 head through Wednesday. That is up 5,000 head from the previous week and 6,000 head above the same week in 2017. Wednesday morning’s FCE online auction showed no sales on 464 head offered, with 2 lots passing on offers of $112.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $109.825, down $0.250,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $111.000, up $0.075,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $114.525, up $0.150,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.650, up $0.800

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.750, up $1.025

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.975, up $0.475

Lean hog futures posted 57.5 cent to $1.575 losses in most contracts on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.40 on August 6, to $66.64. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.08 from the previous day at $70.97 on Wednesday afternoon. The picnic was the only primal reported higher. The national base hog carcass was down $2.16 on Wednesday afternoon, with the weighted average totaling $47.70. USDA estimated Week to Date FI hog slaughter at 1.31 million head through Wednesday. That is down 33,000 head from last week due to plant downtime but 30,000 head above the same week last year.

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $54.800, down $1.000,

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $48.400, down $1.575

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $44.375, down $1.250

Cotton futures were down mostly 32 to 83 points on Wednesday, in sympathy with crude oil. WTI Crude saw sharp $2.39 per barrel losses on the day. The weekly USDA Export Sales report will be released at the normal 7:30 a.m. CDT time on Thursday. This report will finish out sales and shipments for the 2017/18 MY. Traders, in general, are expecting NASS to show a reduction to the US cotton production figure on Friday. The Cotlook A index was up 25 points from the previous day at 98.25 cents/lb on August 6. The weekly USDA AWP is currently at 80.06 cents/lb and will be updated on Thursday.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 87.390, down 83 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 87.180, down 72 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 87.470, down 61 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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