Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 3 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Wednesday. The US EIA report for the week ending May 12 had daily ethanol production rising 21,000 barrels per day (bpd), at 1.027 million bpd. That is the largest weekly production in nearly a month and a half. Meanwhile, ethanol stocks increased another 359,000 barrels to 23,414. The East Coast saw lower stocks, while the other regions were seen adding. An estimated 3.957 billion bushels of corn have been used for ethanol this 16/17 marketing year so far. Analysts at Lanworth are projecting 2017/18 corn production to be 13.99 bbu, with a national average yield of 166.9 bpa.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.71 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.79 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.88 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.98 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents

Soybean futures are currently mixed in the front months. Front month meal is down $1.20, with July 17 soy oil 21 points higher. Lanworth analysts are estimating a yield of 46.8 bpa for 17/18 US soybean production, with total production expected at 4.09 bbu. DTN reported a national average cash price of $9.07 on Tuesday night, the largest since late March. The national average basis was at -69.25 cents, 4 cents stronger than the same time last year, while the cash price is down 84 1/4. Brazilian farmer selling has also been limited by a firm currency, reducing the number of reais received by the farmer per sack.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.77 1/4, up 1 cent,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.76, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.71 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.67 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $315.80, down $1.20

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.22, up $0.21

Wheat futures are higher in most contracts at midday. KC and CBT are leading the way, mostly around 5 cents higher, with MPLS wheat a penny to 2 cents in the green. There are reports of combines in the field along the border of TX and OK this week. The US was reported to have the lowest offer for Egypt’s GASC tender, at $185.50/MT FOB. Egypt bought 295,000 MT, including those US HRW cargos and vessels from Russia, Ukraine and Romania. These are for shipment June 15-24 and thus can be US new crop. Japan’s tender for 79,572 MT of US wheat closes tomorrow. Russia spring wheat planting on May 1 was down 33.91% since the previous year, at 1.142 million acres.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.29 1/4, up 5 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.30, up 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $5.41 3/4, up 2 cents

Live cattle futures are showing gains of 30 to 52.5 cents in the nearby contracts at midday. Feeder cattle futures are mixed as May is 60 cents higher. The CME feeder cattle index was at $142.20 on May 15, down 78 cents from the previous day. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the morning report. Choice boxes averaged 57 cents lower to $249.31, with select down $1.42, averaging $222.97. Despite lower prices, the Ch/Se spread still increased to $26.34. Estimated FI slaughter through Tuesday was 230,000 head, unchanged from last week and 7,000 head more than the same week last year. Prices on the FCE auction this morning came close to meeting in the middle of yesterday’s asks and bids at $135.16 for 1-9 day delivery. The 1-9 day deliveries accounted for 1,621 head sold as 2,379 were offered. Delivery for 1-17 days averaged $134.28, with 17-30 day at $130.84. Cash trade last week was mostly $137-138. Unsold lots had asking prices mostly around $136. In other trade, cattle are reportedly changing hands at around $215 in the North so far today.

Jun 17 Cattle are at $122.375, up $0.475,

Aug 17 Cattle are at $118.775, up $0.525,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $115.425, up $0.300,

May 17 Feeder Cattle are at $141.550, up $0.600

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $147.250, down $0.450

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $147.350, down $0.325

Lean hog futures are 17.5 to 77.5 cents higher at midday, as back months are lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 5/15 was up another $1.07 to $73.01. The USDA pork carcass value was sharply higher in the morning report, up $2.50, with an average of $87.58. Most primal cuts were sharply higher, with the exception of the belly, as it was down $2.72. The national base hog carcass price was 92 cents lower at $70.27. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD through Tuesday was 876,000 head, 3,000 head more than last week, and 12,000 head larger than the same week a year ago.

Jun 17 Hogs are at $79.500, up $0.775,

Jul 17 Hogs are at $79.650, up $0.175

Aug 17 Hogs are at $79.075, up $0.250

Cotton futures have calmed down a bit today, after a crazy start to the week. July is currently down a point, with back months as much as 60 point higher.The US dollar index is 497 points lower on the day, as it is now down below pre-election levels. The AWP (average world price) through Thursday is 68.69 cents/lb. Most eyes will be on the export sales announcement tomorrow morning. Online trade volume slowed down to 133 bales on the Seam, as prices lowered to 67.32 cents/lb. China sold another 25,400 MT of cotton from state reserves on Wednesday, as they sold 84.625 of the near 30,000 MT offered. The Cotlook A index for May 16 was up another 3 cents/lb to 94.90 cents/lb.

Jul 17 Cotton is at 81.31, down 1 point,

Oct 17 Cotton is at 77.16, up 24 points

Dec 17 Cotton is at 74.84, up 50 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 74.010, up 52 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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