Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed steady to fractionally lower on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production for the week of May 4 jumping 8,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 1.04 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were down 178,000 barrels to 21.964 million barrels. Analysts are expecting to see 0.7-1 MMT in weekly old crop corn export sales tomorrow morning, with 50,000-300,000 MT estimated for new crop sales. World corn carryout for 17/18 is expected to be cut 2.6 MMT to 195.18 MMT by the USDA tomorrow. Ending stocks for 18/19 are seen at 183.6 MMT by analysts, a nearly 14 MMT drop from the current USDA 17/18 ending stocks.

May 18 Corn closed at $3.94 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $4.02 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.11, down 1/4 cent

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.19 1/2, unch

Soybean futures were 1 to 4 cents in the red at Wednesday’s final bell. Soy meal was up 50 cents/ton, with front month soy oil 38 points higher. Along with the monthly WASDE report, the USDA will release the Export Sales report on Thursday morning. The average trade guess for old crop soybean sales in that report are 300,000 to 600,000 MT in the week that ended 5/3. New crop is seen at 100,000-300,000 MT. Soy meal sales are projected at 100,000-400,000 MT with bean oil sales at 15,000-60,000 MT. For the WASDE report, world soybean ending stocks for 17/18 are estimated 0.9 MMT lower at 89.9 MMT. Analysts are expecting the USDA’s initial 18/19 carryout projection at 91.2 MMT, a slight increase from 17/18.

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.07 1/4, down 4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.15 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.19 1/4, down 4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $10.24 1/4, down 1 cent,

May 18 Soybean Meal closed at $389.20, up $0.50,

May 18 Soybean Oil closed at $30.87, up $0.38

Wheat futures settled the Wednesday session with 3 to 6 3/4 cent losses in most contracts. All wheat export sales during the week of May 3 are estimated to range 0-350,000 MT for old crop and 200,000-350,000 MT for new crop. World ending stocks for old crop wheat is seen as steady to slightly lower in Thursday’s USDA S&D report. Carryout for the 18/19 MY is expected to drop ~2 MMT from the prior year to 269.1 MMT. Stats Canada will release their quarterly stocks report on Friday, with March 31 wheat stocks expected slightly lower than last year.

May 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.14 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

May 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12, down 6 1/2 cents,

May 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.15 1/4, down 4 cents

Live cattle futures ended the day with most contracts 15 cents to $1.10 lower. Feeder cattle futures are down 52.5 cents to $1.025. The CME feeder cattle index was up 9 cents on May 8 at $138.00. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 3 cents at $230.96, with Select boxes 98 cents lower at $208.95. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 356,000 head through Wednesday, up 3,000 head from last week and 9,000 head larger than the same week last year. This morning’s FCE online auction showed no sales on the 2,456 head offered. One lot passed on an offer of $122.25. The skepticism is not surprising, as cash trade in the country has ended the week much higher than the FCE recently. Cash trade is currently at a standstill with bids and asks far apart.

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $105.675, down $0.625,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $103.375, down $1.100,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $106.750, down $0.600,

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.150, down $0.575

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.700, down $1.025

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.175, down $0.850

Lean hog futures were mostly a dime to $1 lower, with June 27.5 cents in the green. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 4 cents from the previous day to $63.33 on May 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 74 cents at $72.04 on Wednesday afternoon. The loin was the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was 65 cents lower at $60.63. The USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter at 1.374 million head through Wednesday. That is 15,000 fewer than last week but 59,000 above this week last year.

May 18 Hogs closed at $65.925, down $0.275,

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $76.575, up $0.275

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $77.600, down $0.125

Cotton futures saw gains of 30 to 48 points on Wednesday. Crude oil was $2.18/barrel higher on the day. Analysts are expecting to see 150,000-225,000 RB in old crop sales tomorrow morning. They also expect the USDA to once again raise its projection for old crop cotton exports 200,000-300,000 bales in Thursday’s WASDE report. The USDA cotton Adjusted World Price, currently at 74.99 cents/lb will be updated tomorrow. The Cotlook A index was up 1.40 cents to 94.65 cents/lb on May 8. On Wednesday, China sold 18,800 MT of cotton from state reserves, 62.63% of the total offered. Celeres estimates Brazil’s 17/18 cotton crop at 1.87 MMT (~8.58 million bales), a 24% jump from the previous year.

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 85.860, up 48 points,

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 82.280, up 43 points

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 80.560, up 46 points

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